WLA PAC || 2026 Election Update (Nov. 6): One Close Race Flips as the Supermajority Holds

Election Results Update – PDF LINK

Washington State | Unofficial count as of Thursday evening, November 5, 2026 | Prepared by Lobby Washington

Hello WLA Members: 

Counties posted their third round of results Thursday afternoon. About 2.55 million ballots have now been counted, with roughly 530,000 left, close to 40 percent of them in King County. One close House race changed leaders, and Democrats remain on track for a two-thirds supermajority in the House. Everything here is unofficial until counties certify on November 24. The full race-by-race results, including a list of the closest races, are in the attached report.

What changed since yesterday:

• One lead changed hands. Rep. Brian Burnett moved ahead of Stacy Willoughby in the 12th District by about 100 votes, after trailing for the first two counts. At that margin, the race would go to an automatic hand recount.
• The supermajority is still on track. Democrats now lead in 67 of 98 House seats, one above the two-thirds line, and are on track for 31 of 49 in the Senate.
• Several Republican incumbents have conceded. Reps. Kevin Waters, David Stuebe, John Ley, Gloria Mendoza, and Deb Manjarrez have conceded or said they do not expect to close the gap.
• Thursday’s count favored Republicans in several of the closest races outside King County. Republican leads in the 35th and 39th grew, and the 35th Senate race tightened.

Washington’s Congressional Races

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has won reelection in the 3rd District, so Senate Republican Leader John Braun returns to Olympia, where his state Senate seat was not on the ballot this year. Rep. Michael Baumgartner’s lead over Carmela Conroy in the 5th nearly doubled in Thursday’s count. If it holds, Washington’s delegation stays at eight Democrats and two Republicans.

Washington Ballot Initiatives

• I-645 (income tax repeal): FAILING, by about 15 points. The fight now moves to the courts.
• I-638 (girls’ school sports): PASSING, by a wider margin.
• I-001 (Parents’ Bill of Rights): FAILING, though the margin narrowed slightly.
• Tacoma Safe Homes for All (Measure 1): PASSING (no new count yet).
• Bellingham Rent-Pricing Ban (Initiative 26-01): PASSING (no new count yet).

Washington Supreme Court

Sean O’Donnell’s lead in the open Position 4 grew again, even as King County, Ian Birk’s strongest county, continued counting. Candidates backed by the governor and Democratic leaders still lead comfortably in the other four races.

Washington State Legislature

House. Eight Democratic pickups now lead. The 12th moved back to Rep. Burnett. It is now the closest race in the state and could still go either way, since part of the district is in King County, which has the most ballots left to count. David Berg’s lead over Rep. Michael Keaton in the 25th grew. Republicans widened their leads in the 35th and the open 39th, while Rep. Cyndy Jacobsen’s lead in the 25th narrowed.

Senate. Carolina Mejia still leads Sen. Drew MacEwen in the 35th, but by less than 1,000 votes, making it the one Senate seat to watch. Rep. Cindy Ryu’s lead over Sen. Jesse Salomon in the 32nd grew again.

Moderate Democrats. The challengers from the left still lead Reps. Amy Walen, Melanie Morgan, and Sharon Tomiko Santos. Rep. Tarra Simmons’s lead over Daria Ilgen in the 23rd grew slightly but remains too close to call.

What it adds up to. Even if Rep. Keaton came back in the 25th, House Democrats would still hold 66 seats, exactly the two-thirds line.

Washington’s Balance of Power If Current Leads Hold

What This Means for Us

About 26 new lawmakers are on track to arrive in Olympia in January, and they are forming their views on our issues now. If you or your members are in one of their districts, let us know and we will set up a meeting before session begins. The attached report (see PDF Link above) lists every new lawmaker by district.

A reminder: the Center for Pragmatic Leadership’s Washington Summit is November 30 through December 2 at Semiahmoo. Please have your leadership register at luma.com/g47bu0ko and let me know you are going.

What Comes Next

Counties post their next counts Friday afternoon. We will send our next update Monday, November 9, or sooner if a close race changes hands. Counties certify on November 24, and the 2027 session convenes Monday, January 11.

Thank you, as always, for your partnership. 

Chester Baldwin, Attorney at Law

Lobby Washington, LLC

chet@lobbywa.com

Cell: (360) 688-4588

Fax: (360) 841-7062