Election Overview
Counties posted new results Monday afternoon, following a rare Saturday count from King County, and the 12th District changed leaders again. About 3.06 million ballots have now been counted, with roughly 122,000 left. Democrats have now secured a two-thirds supermajority in the House. Everything here is unofficial until counties certify on November 24. The full race-by-race results, including a list of the closest races, follow.
What changed since our last update:
•     The 12th District flipped back. Saturday’s King County ballots put Stacy Willoughby (D) back ahead of Rep. Brian Burnett (R), after Burnett had led following the Thursday and Friday counts. Her lead grew to about 690 votes in Monday’s counts, outside the range for an automatic recount.
•     The House supermajority is confirmed. As of Monday morning, the Associated Press had called at least seven House seats that Democrats flipped from Republicans, enough for 66 of 98 seats. Counting the races still being decided, Democrats lead in 68 House seats and are on track for 31 of 49 in the Senate.
•     Several Republican incumbents have conceded. Reps. Kevin Waters (R), David Stuebe (R), John Ley (R), Gloria Mendoza (R), and Deb Manjarrez (R) have conceded or said they do not expect to close the gap.
•     Three races are now in recount range. Carolina Mejia’s (D) lead over Sen. Drew MacEwen (R) in the 35th fell to just 88 votes in Monday’s counts, within the range for an automatic hand recount. In the 25th, Rep. Cyndy Jacobsen (R) leads Jenn Marie Strickling (D) by about 150 votes, and in the 23rd, Rep. Tarra Simmons (D) leads Daria Ilgen (D) by about 320 votes; both are within automatic machine recount range.
Washington’s Congressional Races
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) has won reelection in the 3rd District, so Senate Republican Leader John Braun (R) returns to Olympia, where his state Senate seat was not on the ballot this year. Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R) leads Carmela Conroy (D) in the 5th by more than 11,000 votes and claimed victory last Friday night, though the race has not been officially called. If it holds, Washington’s delegation stays at eight Democrats and two Republicans.
Washington Ballot Initiatives
•     I-645 (income tax repeal): FAILED, by about 16 points, and the race has been called. The fight now moves to the courts.
•     I-638 (girls’ school sports): PASSED, and the race has been called.
•     I-001 (Parents’ Bill of Rights): FAILING, by about 5 points.
•     Tacoma Safe Homes for All (Measure 1): PASSING (no new count yet).
•     Bellingham Rent-Pricing Ban (Initiative 26-01): PASSING (no new count yet).
Washington Supreme Court
Sean O’Donnell still leads in the open Position 4 by about 36,000 votes, after his margin dipped and then grew again in Monday’s counts. Candidates backed by the governor and Democratic leaders still lead comfortably in the other four races.
Washington State Legislature
House. Nine Democratic pickups now lead, including the 12th, where Willoughby (D) retook the lead. In the 25th, David Berg’s (D) lead over Rep. Michael Keaton (R) grew to about 750 votes in Pierce County’s first count since Thursday, while Rep. Cyndy Jacobsen’s (R) lead over Jenn Marie Strickling (D) narrowed to about 150 votes. Republicans still lead in the 35th House races and the open 39th.
Senate. Carolina Mejia (D) still leads Sen. Drew MacEwen (R) in the 35th, as noted above. Rep. Cindy Ryu’s (D) lead over Sen. Jesse Salomon (D) in the 32nd grew again.
Moderate Democrats. Rep. Sharon Tomiko Santos (D) lost to fellow Democrat Kelabe Tewolde (D), and challengers from the left still lead Reps. Amy Walen (D) and Melanie Morgan (D). Rep. Tarra Simmons’s (D) lead over Daria Ilgen (D) in the 23rd narrowed again and remains too close to call.
What it adds up to. The seven called pickups alone give House Democrats 66 seats, exactly the two-thirds line. The 12th and the 25th will decide whether they finish with as many as 68.
Washington’s Balance of Power If Current Leads Hold
| Body | Before | If current leads hold | Change |
| State House (98) | 59 D, 39 R | 68 D, 30 R | D +9 |
| State Senate (49) | 30 D, 19 R | 31 D, 18 R | D +1 |
| U.S. House delegation (10) | 8 D, 2 R | 8 D, 2 R | No change |
The Senate number depends on the 35th, where Mejia leads by 88 votes.
What This Means for Us
About 27 new lawmakers are on track to arrive in Olympia in January, and they are forming their views on our issues now. If you or your members are in one of their districts, let us know and we will set up a meeting before session begins. The table at the end of this report lists every new lawmaker by district.
A reminder: the Center for Pragmatic Leadership’s Washington Summit is November 30 through December 2 at Semiahmoo. Please have your leadership register at luma.com/g47bu0ko and let me know you are going.
What Comes Next
Counties will keep posting new counts throughout the week. We will send our next update later this week, or sooner if a close race changes hands. Counties certify on November 24, and the 2027 session convenes Monday, January 11.
Color key: green marks results that are good for our clients; red marks results that are bad for our clients.
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Chester Baldwin, Attorney at Law
Lobby Washington, LLC
chet@lobbywa.com
Cell: (360) 688-4588
Fax: (360) 841-7062
